BMAD-METHOD/.bmad/bmm/workflows/1-analysis/research/checklist.md

# Market Research Report Validation Checklist

## 🚨 CRITICAL: Source Verification and Fact-Checking (PRIORITY)

### Source Citation Completeness

- [ ] **EVERY** market size claim has at least 2 cited sources with URLs
- [ ] **EVERY** growth rate/CAGR has cited sources with URLs
- [ ] **EVERY** competitive data point (pricing, features, funding) has sources with URLs
- [ ] **EVERY** customer statistic or insight has cited sources
- [ ] **EVERY** industry trend claim has sources from {{current_year}} or recent years
- [ ] All sources include: Name, Date, URL (clickable links)
- [ ] No claims exist without verifiable sources

### Source Quality and Credibility

- [ ] Market size sources are HIGH credibility (Gartner, Forrester, IDC, government data, industry associations)
- [ ] NOT relying on single blog posts or unverified sources for critical data
- [ ] Sources are recent ({{current_year}} or within 1-2 years for time-sensitive data)
- [ ] Primary sources prioritized over secondary/tertiary sources
- [ ] Paywalled reports are cited with proper attribution (e.g., "Gartner Market Report 2025")

### Multi-Source Verification (Critical Claims)

- [ ] TAM calculation verified by at least 2 independent sources
- [ ] SAM calculation methodology is transparent and sourced
- [ ] SOM estimates are conservative and based on comparable benchmarks
- [ ] Market growth rates corroborated by multiple analyst reports
- [ ] Competitive market share data verified across sources

### Conflicting Data Resolution

- [ ] Where sources conflict, ALL conflicting estimates are presented
- [ ] Variance between sources is explained (methodology, scope differences)
- [ ] No arbitrary selection of "convenient" numbers without noting alternatives
- [ ] Conflicting data is flagged with confidence levels
- [ ] User is made aware of uncertainty in conflicting claims

### Confidence Level Marking

- [ ] Every major claim is marked with confidence level:
  - **[Verified - 2+ sources]** = High confidence, multiple independent sources agree
  - **[Single source - verify]** = Medium confidence, only one source found
  - **[Estimated - low confidence]** = Low confidence, calculated/projected without strong sources
- [ ] Low confidence claims are clearly flagged for user to verify independently
- [ ] Speculative/projected data is labeled as PROJECTION or FORECAST, not presented as fact

### Fact vs Analysis vs Speculation

- [ ] Clear distinction between:
  - **FACT:** Sourced data with citations (e.g., "Market is $5.2B [Source: Gartner 2025]")
  - **ANALYSIS:** Interpretation of facts (e.g., "This suggests strong growth momentum")
  - **SPECULATION:** Educated guesses (e.g., "This trend may continue if...")
- [ ] Analysis and speculation are NOT presented as verified facts
- [ ] Recommendations are based on sourced facts, not unsupported assumptions

### Anti-Hallucination Verification

- [ ] No invented statistics or "made up" market sizes
- [ ] All percentages, dollar amounts, and growth rates are traceable to sources
- [ ] If data couldn't be found, report explicitly states "No verified data available for [X]"
- [ ] No use of vague sources like "industry experts say" without naming the expert/source
- [ ] Version numbers, dates, and specific figures match source material exactly

## Market Sizing Analysis (Source-Verified)

### TAM Calculation Sources

- [ ] TAM figure has at least 2 independent source citations
- [ ] Calculation methodology is sourced (not invented)
- [ ] Industry benchmarks used for sanity-check are cited
- [ ] Growth rate assumptions are backed by sourced projections
- [ ] Any adjustments or filters applied are justified and documented

### SAM and SOM Source Verification

- [ ] SAM constraints are based on sourced data (addressable market scope)
- [ ] SOM competitive assumptions cite actual competitor data
- [ ] Market share benchmarks reference comparable companies with sources
- [ ] Scenarios (conservative/realistic/optimistic) are justified with sourced reasoning

## Competitive Analysis (Source-Verified)

### Competitor Data Source Verification

- [ ] **EVERY** competitor mentioned has source for basic company info
- [ ] Competitor pricing data has sources (website URLs, pricing pages, reviews)
- [ ] Funding amounts cite sources (Crunchbase, press releases, SEC filings)
- [ ] Product features verified through sources (official website, documentation, reviews)
- [ ] Market positioning claims are backed by sources (analyst reports, company statements)
- [ ] Customer count/user numbers cite sources (company announcements, verified reports)
- [ ] Recent news and developments cite article URLs with dates from {{current_year}}

### Competitive Data Credibility

- [ ] Company websites/official sources used for product info (highest credibility)
- [ ] Financial data from Crunchbase, PitchBook, or SEC filings (not rumors)
- [ ] Review sites cited for customer sentiment (G2, Capterra, TrustPilot with URLs)
- [ ] Pricing verified from official pricing pages (with URL and date checked)
- [ ] No assumptions about competitors without sourced evidence

### Competitive Claims Verification

- [ ] Market share claims cite analyst reports or verified data
- [ ] "Leading" or "dominant" claims backed by sourced market data
- [ ] Competitor weaknesses cited from reviews, articles, or public statements (not speculation)
- [ ] Product comparison claims verified (feature lists from official sources)

## Customer Intelligence (Source-Verified)

### Customer Data Sources

- [ ] Customer segment data cites research sources (reports, surveys, studies)
- [ ] Demographics/firmographics backed by census data, industry reports, or studies
- [ ] Pain points sourced from customer research, reviews, surveys (not assumed)
- [ ] Willingness to pay backed by pricing studies, surveys, or comparable market data
- [ ] Buying behavior sourced from research studies or industry data
- [ ] Jobs-to-be-Done insights cite customer research or validated frameworks

### Customer Insight Credibility

- [ ] Primary research (if conducted) documents sample size and methodology
- [ ] Secondary research cites the original study/report with full attribution
- [ ] Customer quotes or testimonials cite the source (interview, review site, case study)
- [ ] Persona data based on real research findings (not fictional archetypes)
- [ ] No invented customer statistics or behaviors without source backing

### Positioning Analysis

- [ ] Market positioning map uses relevant dimensions for the industry
- [ ] White space opportunities are clearly identified
- [ ] Differentiation strategy is supported by competitive gaps
- [ ] Switching costs and barriers are quantified
- [ ] Network effects and moats are assessed

## Industry Analysis

### Porter's Five Forces

- [ ] Each force has a clear rating (Low/Medium/High) with justification
- [ ] Specific examples and evidence support each assessment
- [ ] Industry-specific factors are considered (not generic template)
- [ ] Implications for strategy are drawn from each force
- [ ] Overall industry attractiveness conclusion is provided

### Trends and Dynamics

- [ ] At least 5 major trends are identified with evidence
- [ ] Technology disruptions are assessed for probability and timeline
- [ ] Regulatory changes and their impacts are documented
- [ ] Social/cultural shifts relevant to adoption are included
- [ ] Market maturity stage is identified with supporting indicators

## Strategic Recommendations

### Go-to-Market Strategy

- [ ] Target segment prioritization has clear rationale
- [ ] Positioning statement is specific and differentiated
- [ ] Channel strategy aligns with customer buying behavior
- [ ] Partnership opportunities are identified with specific targets
- [ ] Pricing strategy is justified by willingness-to-pay analysis

### Opportunity Assessment

- [ ] Each opportunity is sized quantitatively
- [ ] Resource requirements are estimated (time, money, people)
- [ ] Success criteria are measurable and time-bound
- [ ] Dependencies and prerequisites are identified
- [ ] Quick wins vs. long-term plays are distinguished

### Risk Analysis

- [ ] All major risk categories are covered (market, competitive, execution, regulatory)
- [ ] Each risk has probability and impact assessment
- [ ] Mitigation strategies are specific and actionable
- [ ] Early warning indicators are defined
- [ ] Contingency plans are outlined for high-impact risks

## References and Source Documentation (CRITICAL)

### References Section Completeness

- [ ] Report includes comprehensive "References and Sources" section
- [ ] Sources organized by category (market size, competitive, customer, trends)
- [ ] Every source includes: Title/Name, Publisher, Date, Full URL
- [ ] URLs are clickable and functional (not broken links)
- [ ] Sources are numbered or organized for easy reference
- [ ] Inline citations throughout report reference the sources section

### Source Quality Metrics

- [ ] Report documents total sources cited count
- [ ] High confidence claims (2+ sources) count is reported
- [ ] Single source claims are identified and counted
- [ ] Low confidence/speculative claims are flagged
- [ ] Web searches conducted count is included (for transparency)

### Source Audit Trail

- [ ] For each major section, sources are listed
- [ ] TAM/SAM/SOM calculations show source for each number
- [ ] Competitive data shows source for each competitor profile
- [ ] Customer insights show research sources
- [ ] Industry trends show article/report sources with dates

### Citation Format Standards

- [ ] Inline citations format: [Source: Company/Publication, Year, URL] or similar
- [ ] Consistent citation style throughout document
- [ ] No vague citations like "according to sources" without specifics
- [ ] URLs are complete (not truncated)
- [ ] Accessed/verified dates included for web sources

## Document Quality

### Anti-Hallucination Final Check

- [ ] Read through entire report - does anything "feel" invented or too convenient?
- [ ] Spot-check 5-10 random claims - can you find the cited source?
- [ ] Check suspicious round numbers - are they actually from sources?
- [ ] Verify any "shocking" statistics have strong sources
- [ ] Cross-check key market size claims against multiple cited sources

### Structure and Completeness

- [ ] Executive summary captures all key insights
- [ ] No placeholder text remains (all {{variables}} are replaced)
- [ ] References section is complete and properly formatted
- [ ] Source quality assessment included
- [ ] Document ready for fact-checking by third party

## Research Completeness

### Coverage Check

- [ ] All workflow steps were completed (none skipped without justification)
- [ ] Optional analyses were considered and included where valuable
- [ ] Web research was conducted for current market intelligence
- [ ] Financial projections align with market size analysis
- [ ] Implementation roadmap provides clear next steps

### Validation

- [ ] Key findings are triangulated across multiple sources
- [ ] Surprising insights are double-checked for accuracy
- [ ] Calculations are verified for mathematical accuracy
- [ ] Conclusions logically follow from the analysis
- [ ] Recommendations are actionable and specific

## Final Quality Assurance

### Ready for Decision-Making

- [ ] Research answers all initial objectives
- [ ] Sufficient detail for investment decisions
- [ ] Clear go/no-go recommendation provided
- [ ] Success metrics are defined
- [ ] Follow-up research needs are identified

### Document Meta

- [ ] Research date is current
- [ ] Confidence levels are indicated for key assertions
- [ ] Next review date is set
- [ ] Distribution list is appropriate
- [ ] Confidentiality classification is marked

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## Issues Found

### Critical Issues

_List any critical gaps or errors that must be addressed:_

- [ ] Issue 1: [Description]
- [ ] Issue 2: [Description]

### Minor Issues

_List minor improvements that would enhance the report:_

- [ ] Issue 1: [Description]
- [ ] Issue 2: [Description]

### Additional Research Needed

_List areas requiring further investigation:_

- [ ] Topic 1: [Description]
- [ ] Topic 2: [Description]

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**Validation Complete:** ☐ Yes ☐ No
**Ready for Distribution:** ☐ Yes ☐ No
**Reviewer:** **\*\***\_\_\_\_**\*\***
**Date:** **\*\***\_\_\_\_**\*\***